Hullabaloo

Tuesday, June 05, 2012

 

Polarized swingers: the new Pew Poll shows they make no sense

by digby

Here's an interesting new Pew Poll about polarization. Apparently there are more swing voters, even as the two parties are more distinct and polarized, which says that these people really don't know their own minds. (After all, if the two parties are very far apart, you'd think it would make it more likely that a person would pick one or the other, not go back and forth.)

In any case, I found this to be an odd conclusion:

While Republicans and Democrats have been moving further apart in their beliefs, both groups have also been shrinking. Pew Research Center polling conducted so far in 2012 has found fewer Americans affiliating with one of the major parties than at any point in the past 25 years. And looking at data from Gallup going back to 1939, it is safe to say that there are more political independents in 2012 than at any point in the last 75 years.

Currently, 38% of Americans identify as independents, while 32% affiliate with the Democratic Party and 24% affiliate with the GOP. That is little changed from recent years, but long-term trends show that both parties have lost support.

Now look at this and tell me what's wrong with that:

Do you see what I see? That's right, the Democratic share has been fairly constant. The new Independents are coming from the Republican ranks. Why Pew chose to say that it's been an equal fall off for both parties is anyone's guess, but it doesn't appear to be true.

Meanwhile, the Wankstock dream will never die:

Now Waitt has decided to get back in the game. In May, he launched a super-PAC called icPurple, seeded it with $300,000, and set his sights on a handful of local and congressional races in California's June 5 primary. His goal: Help independent, centrist candidates win political office. Think of it as the super-PAC for the David Brooks set. On Tuesday, Waitt will find out if it's working.

The mission of icPurple rests on the theory that a large chunk of the American electorate is, at heart, a lot like Waitt. Its website asks readers to sign a "Declaration of Independents" and offers a test with questions that are designed to show we're not as polarized as we might think. (Waitt classifies himself as socially liberal and fiscally conservative.) "If you can't sign up for everything the Democrats believe in, you probably shouldn't vote for a one," icPurple warns. Ditto for Republicans. The super-PAC's first television ad, a 30-second spot, features a band of elementary school kids fighting over whether to paint their tree house with red or blue paint. Finally, someone has the idea to mix the two. Voila: purple.

It's his money ...

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digby 6/05/2012 10:30:00 AM