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Hullabaloo


Monday, November 05, 2012

 
Memorializing the rightwing election projections

by David Atkins

On the day before election day, it's important to set down for the record in one place the electoral projections of the great rightwing pundits du jour for eternal memory. This should be done in the vain hope that the publications and media outlets that pay these people good money for their opinions may realize that their money is being wasted, and consider hiring people who actually live on Planet Reality instead. Of course, if the media functioned this way, it would have fired all the people who were wrong about the Iraq War, climate change, supply-side economics, austerity, and the rest. There is no accountability in the punditry business.

But just in case the accountability fairy shows up, it's important to remember the following predictions:

First up, Karl Rove:

My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.
Next, Michael Barone:

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
Then there's Glenn Beck:
Story on the blaze on all those who are now saying what I have said for a while: landslide for Romney. 321 electoral votes.

George Will has 321 Romney, 217 Obama (though he forgot his own numbers on the air):

I forgot my exact number. I guess you have a graphic here. I guess the wild card in what I've projected is I'm projecting Minnesota to go for Romney. Now, that's the only state in the union, because Mondale held it -- native son Mondale held it when Romney was -- when Reagan was getting 49 states -- the only state that's voted Democratic in nine consecutive elections. But this year, there's a marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals and I think could make the difference.

The immortally wrong Dick Morris:

We're going to win by a landslide. "It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history." "It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where I think in fact Romney’s going to win by quite a bit. My own view is that Romney is going to carry 325 electoral votes...I think he's going to win Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana...Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota and Colorado. This is going to be a landslide.

Jay Cost of the Weekly Standard:

I think Mitt Romney is likely to win next Tuesday.

For two reasons:

(1) Romney leads among voters on trust to get the economy going again.

(2) Romney leads among independents.

There's Mickey Kaus who, while stopping short of a prediction, is counting on the Bradley Effect and thinks Hurricane Sandy hurts Obama. If either or both of these were true, the election would go to Romney.

And now back to reality. Here's a handy list of swing state polls, courtesy Steve Singiser at Daily Kos:

FLORIDA (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 46, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 44 (RV)

FLORIDA (Mellman Group for Americans United For Change): Obama 47, Romney 45

FLORIDA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 49, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 49, Romney 46 (RV)

FLORIDA (Mason Dixon): Romney 51, Obama 45

FLORIDA (YouGov): Romney 48, Obama 47

IOWA (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 48

IOWA (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 47

IOWA (Des Moines Register): Obama 47, Romney 42

IOWA (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 47, Romney 44

MICHIGAN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Romney 47, Obama 46

MICHIGAN (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 46

MICHIGAN (YouGov): Obama 51, Romney 44

MINNESOTA (NMB Research--R): Romney 46, Obama 45

MINNESOTA (PPP): Obama 53, Romney 45

MINNESOTA (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 43

NEVADA (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 45

NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Obama 50, Romney 48

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): Obama 48, Romney 48

NEW HAMPSHIRE (YouGov): Obama 47, Romney 43

OHIO (Columbus Dispatch): Obama 50, Romney 48

OHIO (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 49, Romney 45

OHIO (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 48, Romney 44 (LV); Obama 52, Romney 41 (RV)

OHIO (NBC News/Marist): Obama 51, Romney 45 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 44 (RV)

OHIO (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 47

OHIO (YouGov): Obama 49, Romney 46

PENNSYLVANIA (Muhlenberg College): Obama 49, Romney 46

PENNSYLVANIA (PPP): Obama 52, Romney 46

PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna Research--R): Obama 47, Romney 47

PENNSYLVANIA (YouGov): Obama 52, Romney 44

VIRGINIA (Ipsos-Reuters): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 50, Romney 42 (RV)

VIRGINIA (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47

VIRGINIA (YouGov): Obama 48, Romney 46

WISCONSIN (Grove Insight for Project New America/USAction): Obama 48, Romney 42

WISCONSIN (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 48

WISCONSIN (YouGov): Obama 50, Romney 46
As Nate Silver suggests, either these polls are all wrong in the aggregate or these pseudo-pundits are nothing more than propagandists playing with Ouija boards.

My personal prediction? Obama 294, Romney 244. Obama wins national popular vote by 1.2 points. Though some intrepid electoral college work can doubtless figure out how I get to that prediction, I'll post my state-by-state prediction at 3pm.

We'll have to see who comes out correct in the end. My suspicion is that it's not going to be the so-called conservatives who get paid big money for their supposed political wisdom.


Update: with bonus Peggy Noonan!


Nobody knows anything. Everyone’s guessing. I spent Sunday morning in Washington with journalists and political hands, one of whom said she feels it’s Obama, the rest of whom said they don’t know. I think it’s Romney. I think he’s stealing in “like a thief with good tools,” in Walker Percy’s old words. While everyone is looking at the polls and the storm, Romney’s slipping into the presidency. He’s quietly rising, and he’s been rising for a while...

mong the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.

I think they are and I think it’s this: a Romney win.

Just as fact-free as Noonan's entire career, and every speech she's ever written.

.

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