Oscar stats for political junkies
by digby
If you political junkies would like to turn the Oscars into some wonky fun, I'd recommend that you read Nate Silver's statistical take on it --- it's lots of fun. As someone who observed this game close up for many years, I can tell you that his methodology is pretty good --- there's definitely a certain bandwagon effect to the awards.
Anyway, here's the upshot:
There's usually at least one surprise. I think it could be Best Picture. (Silver Linings Playbook is coming on strong.) But we'll see.
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